https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-nxv8u-1b345cc
Are You Ready for the Next Unknown Known? Relying on rules of thumb and past trends is a fast track to getting blindsided. From climate feedback loops to high-velocity risks, here is why traditional modeling fails in an unpredictable world—and how first-principles thinking can keep you ahead.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-v9k5z-1b286fa
Successful ERM implementations develop over time through iterative refinement, building organizational buy-in before layering on complex modeling structures. Here is Part 2 of “Implementing ERM”.
In part 1, we covered the foundational core: balancing risk exploitation with downside protection, navigating the five phases of the risk control cycle, and applying four primary measurement methodologies to quantify exposure.
Now, in Part 2, we’re moving from operations to Strategy. We will be diving into setting actionable risk appetites and tolerances, communicating effectively with senior leadership, and positioning the CRO as a strategic business partner rather than ‘Doctor No’.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ehvwy-1b11a94
Regular ERM is one of the six Time Zones of ERM. This is part 1 of our discussion of regular ERM. We include discussion of Exploiting Risk by focusing on both upside and downside of risk. The three Levels of ERM. The Risk Control Cycle. Risk Prioritization. Emerging Risk and the role of human foresight. And finish up with discussion of four Risk Measurement techniques. Part 2 will land next month.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-5vnw2-1b07f25
History has a way of creeping back when we assume the battle is already won. In this our 85th episode, we confront an immediate, present-day vulnerability to TB that most professionals believe belongs safely in the textbooks of the past.
Current risk frameworks are structurally blind to slow-moving, invisible threats that erode infrastructure from the inside out. TB has been quietly adapting beneath the surface of modern economic and social systems while the world looks the other way.
Tune in to find out why this emerging risk requires a radical, immediate shift in perspective.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-5z3h9-1aee18e
I used to think a great ERM program just meant strict discipline. Now I know the best CROs have an ERM playbook with multiple sets of plays and sometimes they are calling audibles, changing the ERM play at the last moment. Most companies run their business using a single ERM playbook—until a crisis hits. Today we address 6 distinct “time zones” and explain how you actually need different playbooks for each.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-knmcm-1aceef7
Outliers are events we know are possible—we have the data, the science, or the historical precedent—but we actively ignore them because they haven’t happened recently. They grow in the dark because a stable economy breeds complacency, leading institutions to price assets as if these threats don’t exist. In today’s podcast, Max explains how we must shine a light into the dark corners of the market—looking for risk interactions, tightening loan covenants, and questioning historical models before the next Outlier forces the light on for all of us.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-tqx3f-1ac8dd0
If you treat a “wicked problem” like a standard, predictable risk, failure is almost guaranteed. Listen up and we will explain, what is a Wicked Problem and how it is very different from most of the risks on your risk register.
In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we break down why traditional enterprise risk management frameworks are completely failing in the face of modern, systemic crises—from climate change shifts to sudden technological disruptions like AI herding. Discover the hidden dangers of relying too heavily on rigid corporate models, why forcing economic efficiency might actually make these risks worse and your organization more fragile.
These problems don’t actually have any right or wrong solutions. Welcome to the squishy world of unique, wicked problems.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-47eav-1ab6b98
The risk of hyperinflation should not be ignored despite our lack of recent experience with it in the U.S. Hyperinflation is not just theoretical, our discussion looks at the core mechanics of inflation – most notably that it is based on trust. Max shares a comprehensive look at the unique factors cushioning the U.S., such as reserve currency status, while also addressing significant growing risks, including consistent deficits and a debt-to-GDP ratio now exceeding 100%. Hear about the complex interactions of economic policy, shadow banking, and the leading indicators that proactive risk managers must monitor to prepare for potential high-inflation scenarios.
Blog post of this story:
https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/hyperinflation
Survival in chaos doesn’t come from optimization. It comes from diversification, buffers, and the speed to decide what to do next.
Pragmatists have a completely different way of doing risk management that is designed for these VUCA times. By focusing on building resilience to survive volatility. Most managers are doing this wrong by chasing efficiency in a uncertain world. In this episode, we break down the “Pragmatist Manifesto” and its six core principles.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-3dgzd-1a8e1a2
Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that’s about to avalanche.
Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-tjwjt-1a6adc6
We are making decisions with incomplete and conflicting information every day. Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) make it harder and harder to get those decisions right. Maybe we need to change our objective, not to find the best decision, but the one with the least chance of disastrous consequences. Keep your eyes out for the Regime change that has started. We provide four examples of what may be next.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ie9mg-1a35390
How do you make a confident decision when the information itself is unclear? Ambiguity is the core challenge of modern leadership.
But the pursuit of perfect data to drive good decisions leads right into “analysis paralysis”. We need to be enhancing our capability to use strategies like satisficing—making the best possible decision within time constraints—and using narrative scenarios to communicate complex risks to non-experts. For professionals and graduates navigating an uncertain future, the key takeaway is that human judgment, creativity, and ethical reasoning are the skills AI cannot replicate and are most valuable in an ambiguous world.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-xwgeb-1a3538e
A jet engine is complicated. Your company is complex. The strategies for managing the risks of each are fundamentally—and dangerously—different.
We call Complexity the “twist” in VUCA because it fundamentally changes the nature of the problems we face. While Volatility, Uncertainty, and Ambiguity describe challenging conditions, Complexity introduces a system where the parts are interdependent and adapt. This means you cannot solve a complex problem by simply breaking it into smaller, complicated parts and fixing them.
Complexity is the twist: it’s the element that makes VUCA environments truly unmanageable with old playbooks. You cannot apply a “complicated” solution to a “complex” problem and get the result that you want.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-z7vt9-1a3537f
Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.
Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful. We just do not know what changes are right around the corner. We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI’s speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-z7vt9-1a3537f
Uncertainty is rising and AI is one of the most significant drivers.
Not because there is something wrong with AI, but because it is so different and so powerful. We just do not know what changes are right around the corner. We do believe that the future belongs to the companies who learn to best combine human empathy, creativity and the ability to navigate uncertainty with AI’s speed of processing and power of connection making between existing ideas and new human insights.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-trp43-1a229ed
We are entering a period of high risk coming from every direction that our current systems cannot hope to mitigate.
This episode of Crossing Thin Ice looks ahead to 2026’s major challenges. Hosts Dave and Max analyze interconnected risks—from economic fragility and climate change to AI’s inflection bubble. They explore whether our systems are drifting toward crisis or a path to resilience. Tune in for a systems-thinking discussion on navigating financial, geopolitical, and technological headwinds.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-kqhc2-1a038a0
Diversify food strategies, not just portfolios.
Solutions like the Green Revolution and widespread monoculture farming boosted food supply but created long-term ecological and social vulnerabilities. We link population ideas from Franklin and Malthus to modern pressures—climate change, resource scarcity, migration—and warns these risks could cause solvency issues for insurers. Max discusses solutions for the agriculture sector as well as for insurers. You might consider adding this to your emerging risks list.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-a62tw-19d84a9
Replace “this won’t happen” with “what if” and give your strategy a fighting chance.
Volatility isn’t just a number — it’s the signal that tells you whether your strategy will survive shocks or be blindsided by them. This podcast starts our VUCA series and shows why time horizon, human bias, and narrative scenarios matter more than averages. Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to follow.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-79mv8-19cc300
Execution isn’t speed or perfection. It’s reliable delivery under chaos. Use these six steps to get there.
Great ideas can fail simply because execution breaks down? In episode 70 of Crossing Thin Ice, hosts Max Rudolph and David Ingram show how risk management helps with good execution to turn plans into predictable profit. This episode walks through six practical pillars that make execution reliable even when reality diverges from the plan.
You’ll hear real-world examples you can take up and apply with the help of your ERM program. This conversation is practical, practitioner-focused, and geared to leaders who want execution that survives stress and delivers consistent results.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-gqqmu-19c3502
Most ORSA reports definitely fall into the TLDR category. But you can tell the ORSA with a clear, fast story that will become a part of the strategy discussion. This podcast tells how to turn a dense solvency exercise into an elevator pitch that earns attention, builds confidence, and links risk work to strategy. You’ll see why some ERM programs thrive and others wither, and how a small change in communication can protect capital and enhance decision-making. Read this if you want your next ORSA to be useful, not just compliant — and to get executives listening. Skip the noise—make your ORSA count today.
Read the blog post: https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/orsa-rides-the-elevator
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-y9pqf-19ace24
Data centers, AI, and local energy and water systems are colliding — and communities are feeling the strain. In this episode, we break down how data centers drive local jobs and growth but also demand massive electricity and millions of gallons of cooling water. We dig into real-world impacts (with Memphis as a case study), the strain on local grids, and the tradeoffs between diesel, natural gas, and renewable power.
You will learn about closed-loop cooling, reclaimed-water and air-cooling options, and why narrow, task-focused AI could cut future energy use. We also discuss the economic risks when data-center buildouts outpace real demand and what municipalities should demand from operators — from rate guarantees to public environmental review.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-sttr2-199ce08
Good timing is a critical advantage in product launches and broader risk management. But you need to be ready. Readiness is internal – organizational alignment, product, operations, finance, and sales – and external – economic, technology, regulatory, cyclical, customer, and competitive timing. Risk management helps by monitoring the environment, promoting transparency, running stress tests and scenarios, setting limits and early warnings, and building adaptability. Real examples from variable annuities and long-term care show how well‑timed hedging or market entry can protect companies — and how bad timing can be costly. The takeaway: ensure both internal and external readiness before you launch.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-bc5b6-1986c13
Can insurers treat premiums like a cheap loan — and when does that bet blow up? In this episode we unpack “investing for float”: where it can boost returns, why annuities and life blocks are fragile, and how gaps in ALM, liquidity and regulation can turn clever strategies into industry-wide risk. Practical checks for boards, investors and regulators throughout.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-rq8vx-196e298
True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes “good judgment” in the fast-paced world of commerce remains a profound, elusive question. How do leaders consistently make the right choices and identify the most probable paths to victory? Navigating this critical challenge is paramount for any enterprise aiming to thrive and secure its future.
Read this story at https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/good-judgment-with-risk-management
An analyst was recently asked to create a new way of looking at the performance of stores in a retail chain. The idea was to bring in different information, shine light on areas that had been overlooked, and ultimately help the company understand which stores were truly contributing to long-term success.
The analyst did their job well. The new measure was carefully constructed, and when the results were rolled out, they painted a different picture than the one management was used to seeing. Stores that had looked strong under the old metric were no longer at the top. And the store that had been ranked best by the prior measure showed serious deficiencies under the new one.
That’s when the trouble started.
The manager of the formerly top-ranked store was furious. He loudly objected to the validity of the new metric, questioned the competence of the analyst, and worked behind the scenes to undermine confidence in the entire project. What was meant to be a better tool for understanding performance quickly turned into a battle over credibility.
The story raises a simple but important question: how could the analyst have prepared for this predictable reaction?
Metrics are never neutral. They don’t just measure—they define success. And because they define success, they shape reputations, power, and careers.
The old performance measure had enshrined certain winners. Being “the top store” became part of those managers’ identity and a validation of their leadership. A new metric rewrites the script. Suddenly, the winners may look ordinary, and the ordinary may look exceptional.
This is not just a technical issue. It is a deeply human one. People resist when a new yardstick threatens their status. They argue, they deflect, and sometimes, they attack the messenger.
The analyst’s role is to provide better insights. But in practice, insight without buy-in rarely has much impact. Data may be correct, but if the people whose performance is being measured feel blindsided or threatened, they will find ways to discredit the results.
That’s what happened here. The analyst was right, but the rollout failed because it ignored the political dimension of measurement. To succeed, the analyst needed not just technical rigor but also preparation for resistance.
So what could have been done differently? Several steps might have turned conflict into collaboration:
1. Stakeholder engagement.
Instead of revealing the new rankings cold, the analyst could have involved store managers early in the process. Asking questions like, “Does this measure capture what you think is most important in running a store?” creates a sense of shared ownership and reduces defensiveness later.
2. Clear rationale.
The analyst should have been ready to explain exactly what the old metric missed, why the new metric was needed, and how it aligned with the company’s broader goals—profitability, customer satisfaction, or long-term growth. Without that, the metric can seem arbitrary.
3. Validation.
Piloting the new metric with a subset of stores, or showing how it correlated with outcomes the company already cared about, would make it harder to dismiss. A manager may still dislike the message, but it is harder to argue with evidence that the measure captures real drivers of success.
4. Transparency.
No metric is perfect. By acknowledging openly what the new measure does well and where it has limitations, the analyst could build credibility. Being upfront about limitations often makes people more willing to trust the strengths.
5. Communication strategy.
Rolling out the metric as a complement to existing measures—rather than an immediate replacement—would have lowered the temperature. Framing it as a new lens, not a verdict, allows managers to see opportunities for improvement instead of feeling accused of failure.
6. Leadership support.
Finally, the analyst could have made sure executives were on board before sharing results widely. When top leadership endorses a measure as central to strategy, objections become disagreements with company direction—not personal battles with the analyst.
This story carries lessons for anyone who creates or uses performance measures:
In this case, the analyst’s work was valid, but the rollout failed. The problem wasn’t the metric—it was the lack of preparation for how the metric would be received.
In organizations, numbers don’t speak for themselves. They speak through the people who introduce them, and they are heard through the lens of those whose status they affect. The lesson is clear: every new measure of performance is both a technical innovation and a change-management exercise. If we forget that, the truth risks getting lost in the noise of resistance.
This applies to risk reporting. It is a scenario I have seen play out on many of the first Economic Capital modeling projects. The capital allocation of a business unit allows the analyst to calculate a new metric, return on capital, for each business unit. At least half of the time, this new metric shows that business unit that was seen as the most successful as having sub par return on capital. In many of those situations, the business unit head of that BU was one of the most powerful executives in the company, and was not willing to admit that there was anything wrong with how they were running their business. So they used all of their influence to kill the capital modeling project. And quite often they were successful.
Whenever I consulted with a modeling project, I made sure that I raised this question to them. How did they plan to deal with the political consequences of their analysis?
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-swcz9-1954117
Many of the most extreme dangers aren’t where people are looking. When risks are “in the light”—visible and priced—they get managed and shrink. But when risks are “in the dark” they quietly grow until a shock exposes them, often after it is too late to do anything about them. Hear about over 30 risks that are in the dark for many business leaders. And a strategy for surviving. Risks grow in the dark until the light finds them – but too late.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-9d6s4-193982c
What if the world’s largest rainforest became a savanna? The Sahara was once lush. Could the Amazon face a similar fate within a generation? Deforestation isn’t just about trees. It’s also about changing global weather patterns. Understanding environmental feedback loops is key to preparing for our future.
Read this story at https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/deforestation-and-feedback-loops
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ezm73-18f9023
Ever wished you could practice for those critical conversations or high-stakes scenarios before they happen? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Max Rudolph and David Ingram dive into the transformative power of AI simulations for risk management and professional development. Discover how these innovative AI-powered role-playing games allow Chief Risk Officers, actuaries, and their teams to hone communication skills, prepare for board presentations, navigate emerging risks, and even shape organizational risk culture. You can get personalized feedback from virtual mentors and gain invaluable experience in a safe, simulated environment. Stop wishing you had a do-over. Now you have have a try-before.
True business success often hinges less on the risks taken and more on the quality of judgment, timing, and execution. Yet, what precisely constitutes “good judgment” in the fast-paced world of commerce remains a profound, elusive question. How do leaders consistently make the right choices and identify the most probable paths to victory? Navigating this critical challenge is paramount for any enterprise aiming to thrive and secure its future.
https://crossingthinice.substack.com/p/good-judgment-with-risk-management
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-pw9s8-18f96fd
Everything we know about economic growth is about to change. Demographics hold the key.This discussion explores how global demographics, from declining birth rates in developed nations to population growth in Africa, will redefine national and global GDP, reshape industries like insurance, and challenge political stability. We dive into the interconnected impacts of an aging world, climate change as a ‘threat multiplier,’ and the historical roots of population projections. Our world is aging, and the economy will be feeling the impact of that very soon.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ja5zw-18eeebf
Do you believe higher risk always leads to higher returns? This podcast challenges that conventional wisdom. Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram explore the critical roles of judgment, timing, and execution in achieving successful outcomes. Through real-world examples and insightful discussions, they reveal why many businesses operate below the efficient frontier and how understanding these dynamics can lead to better business choices. Join us for practical insights that could transform your approach to risk management and enhance your enterprise risk management (ERM) program.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-yxeyb-18dc810
Are AI myths clouding your judgment? Join Dave and Max as they debunk the two most common fantasies about artificial intelligence, revealing the true story of its capabilities and risks. Discover the balance between harnessing AI as a partner and maintaining human oversight. This episode is a must for anyone navigating the evolving landscape of AI risk management.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-a5s73-18b6dec
Recent economic volatility, geopolitical tensions, and climate impacts are reshaping the landscape of risk. With insights on the importance of adapting scenario planning in turbulent times, this episode emphasizes preparing for unexpected futures and reevaluating assumptions to avoid costly missteps. Dave and Max highlight the interconnectedness of financial stability, regulatory pressures, and societal challenges, providing listeners with valuable strategies for enhancing their enterprise risk management programs to meet these challenges.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-uwtw3-18b3b67
Think you understand corporate risk? Listen in as we explore the ins and outs of SEC disclosures. Are the risks that matter the most being buried? What do you need to know to properly understand the Risk Factors section of the SEC filings.
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/enhancing-your-creativity-with-ai/
Explore how AI can enhance creative problem-solving within risk management. Dave and Max discuss the importance of adapting to emerging risks and the role AI can play in this process. From generating innovative ideas to providing instant feedback and keeping track of complex iterative processes, AI serves as a powerful partner for risk professionals. Tune in to discover practical strategies for leveraging AI to think creatively about risk management, improve decision-making, and stay ahead in an unpredictable world.
One of the most powerful qualities of a large language model in creative problem solving is its unwavering ability to contribute—always ready with a response, a suggestion, or an angle, no matter how unusual the question. This responsiveness stems from its training on a vast and diverse body of information, allowing it to tap into patterns, analogies, and knowledge fragments from across domains. That doesn’t mean the contributions are always right or useful—many are banal, some are surprising, and a few are off-base—but the ability to keep the conversation going is its greatest strength. It never stalls out. That makes it an ideal partner in the iterative spiral of creative thinking, especially during those moments when a human collaborator might say, “I’m not sure what to try next.”
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/emerging-risks-and-the-insurer-s-dilemma/
Insurance only works if we can all keep up with the rapid changes being brought on by climate change. In this podcast, Max Rudolph explores the challenges insurers face with wildfires, hurricanes, and the struggle to set fair premiums. They discuss the need for community resilience, regulatory shifts, and innovative predictive modeling. Join them to discover how homeowners can protect themselves in an unpredictable market and why sustainable practices are essential for the future of insurance.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-kdq9r-18678a6
Anyone who has worked in Risk Management has encountered individuals who, for one reason or another, do not believe that ERM is beneficial to a company. In this podcast, Max and Dave examine 10 common Anti-ERM Beliefs and suggest ways to address them.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-525mx-184493e
Discover four scenarios that could reshape our world and your business. Max and Dave are always talking about how important it is to do stress tests. Here are some examples of today’s risks to get you started. Each of these scenarios is built off a plausible extrapolation of recent trends. This podcast offers a deep dive into the dynamics that could have a major impact your organization. Tune in to prepare for the challenges ahead and turn potential threats into opportunities for growth.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-37xru-1829bf0
Are we ready for the next wave of challenges? As the world evolves, so do the risks that come with it. From climate change to geopolitical tensions and the rapid rise of AI, the landscape is shifting in ways we may not fully comprehend. These emerging threats can disrupt businesses, economies, and even our daily lives. It’s crucial to stay informed and proactive in our risk management strategies. Join us as we delve into the complexities of these risks and explore the measures we can take to navigate an uncertain future. Together, we can better prepare for what lies ahead.
Think AI understands your questions like a human would? Think again. Uncover the key differences in decision-making between us and LLMs.
https://www.soa.org/digital-publishing-platform/emerging-topics/et-2025-02-ingram/
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-qbvsm-1808936
Climate change isn’t just about heat. It’s also changing the chemistry of our oceans, with serious consequences for marine life and food security. In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we examine how ocean acidification could accelerate ecosystem collapse. By Max Rudolph
We have been talking and writing about Regime Change for almost 2 years now. Perhaps we seemed much too pessimistic in 2023 when we first started our discussion of this.
But it’s difficult to look around now and say that we are not either in the middle of a Regime Change or just a few quarters away from the start of one.
But first, what are we talking about? What is this Regime Change thing?
Regime Change refers to a profound and multifaceted transformation of a country’s governing structure, societal norms, and economic framework, occurring concurrently and often interdependently. This process involves the replacement or significant alteration of existing power structures, institutions, and ideologies, leading to a fundamental shift in how a society is organized and functions. It typically includes:
We think that the time has come for us all to start thinking about how this Regime Change will impact us and how we will respond.
As mentioned above, we have been talking about this for almost 2 years. Here is what we have been saying:
Regime Change Leads to New Normal
Radical changes in our Physical, Political, Economic and Social systems have been and will continue to buffet humanity. Every so often the combined result is a major change of regime in which new patterns for each of these systems develops and persists for some time creating a new normal. We make the case that this is coming in our world. By Max Rudolph and Dave Ingram
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/regime-change/
Regime Change Scenarios
Four scenario examples leading to Regime Change from Neil Howe, Ray Dalio, Peter Zeihan and the IPCC show us how widely the disruptions can differ while consistently ending up with a big regime change in our near-term future. Part 2 of a four-part series. By Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/regime-change-scenarios/
Scenario Planning in 10 Steps
Like any successful process, scenario planning must be repeated consistently to be successful. From defining the purpose to effective communication and implementation, the steps suggest the importance of communication and planning. By Dave Ingram
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/scenario-planning-in-10-steps/
Regime Change Before & After
A critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow. This episode features insights from Max Rudolph, David Ingram, Raghu Ramachandran, and Jim Evans. We explore scenario drivers and tipping points that could dramatically reshape the risk landscape.
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/regime-change-before-after/
Risks for 2025 and Beyond
From China’s aging population and economic slowdown to India’s tech-fueled growth, from the decline of globalization to the rise of AI and climate disruptions, we explore how emerging risks intertwine to drive the future of our risks in 2025 and beyond. Whether you’re a board member, risk manager, or just live on this planet, join us as we navigate these seismic shifts and uncover the strategies needed to stay ahead. https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/risks-for-2025-and-beyond/
Adaptor: New Role for Business
The future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance of adaptability in modern business. Explore how the new Adapter role will help companies to anticipate challenges, leverage opportunities, and embed resilience into every decision.
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/adaptor-a-vital-new-business-role/
What Next
We have five suggestions:
Engage in the Conversation – Don’t just observe these changes—participate. Challenge your assumptions, discuss with peers, and refine your perspectives on the evolving landscape.
Prepare for Uncertainty – Regime Change doesn’t follow a predictable path. Use scenario thinking to anticipate a range of possible futures and build resilience in your personal and professional decisions.
Adapt Before It’s Too Late – The most successful individuals and businesses will be those who embrace adaptability. Start embedding flexibility into your strategies now.
Act on What You Learn – Information without action is wasted. Identify concrete steps to navigate these shifts, whether in your career, investments, or organizational planning.
Stay Connected – We’ll continue exploring these themes in future podcasts. Follow along, share your insights, and help shape the conversation on what comes next.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-ces9r-17e7820
Are you using RBC for your company’s risk capital calculations? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the power of Own Factor Risk Formulas—customized risk metrics that can give insurers a clearer, faster, and more accurate picture of their capital needs that is easy to explain to executives and boards. From historical stress testing to AI-enhanced risk management, we explore how companies can move beyond regulatory formulas to build a model that truly fits their risk profile.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-fjs3j-17b35fb
When building scenarios – It certainly does! Think about how the 2008 financial crisis reshaped economic forecasts. Those who clung to pre-crisis assumptions faced severe consequences. Acknowledging a new starting point means more resilient strategies. By Max Rudolph
December podcasts on Risks and Adapting
We looked at 13 major issues that are all capable of disrupting our lives in a major way and found three that are the most concerning in the short term and five that we expect will have massive long term consequences.
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/risks-for-2025-and-beyond/
How do we deal with these risks in both the short term and long? We need to become Adaptors. That involves developing a skill for looking around corners and always being prepared for what might be coming.
https://riskviews.wordpress.com/2024/12/17/adaptor-a-vital-new-business-role/
And our first podcast of 2025
Ever wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret. ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected. It will not transform the company. Imagine an ERM program that your whole company supports. That is what you need. By Dave Ingram
https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/align-erm-to-the-company/
It’s not too late. Listen now.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-xsqxm-1797a2d
Ever wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret. ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected. It will not transform the company. Imagine an ERM program that your whole company supports. That is what you need. By Dave Ingram
AI will doubtless cause lots of disruption. There will likely be no place to hide.
The best place to be will be what is called the “Human in the Loop” or HITL.
The HITL Actuary – A Google NotebookLM Podcast
https://notebooklm.google.com/notebook/6fd538e7-3457-4045-ad26-8fb340a22cdf/audio
Of course you resolved to pay more attention to Emerging Risks in 2025. All of the pundits agree, in 2025, the businesses with risk management will be rewarded, but only if they have been paying attention to Emerging Risks. And you can just feel it in the air, they are spot on.
But its a lot of work to catch up on Emerging Risks. There are just so many of them.
This is where Crossing Thin Ice podcasts can help out. We have 15 – 2 0 minute long podcasts available about 10 Emerging Risks. Take a listen:
| Spillover Revisited #46 |
| Revisit the crucial topic of zoonotic spillover diseases and their evolving impact with this podcast. From the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 to the growing concern about bird flu spreading through mammals, including dairy herds, the discussion highlights what we’ve learned—and what we still need to monitor. Special focus is given to wastewater surveillance as a tool for early virus detection and the role actuaries can play in pandemic preparedness. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/spillover-revisited/ |
| Vector Borne Illnesses |
| Stress tests come in various levels of adversity; normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the situation to the appropriate stress test is very important when managing an insurer. Regulators are less interested in how you manage day-to-day, more in scenarios that might result in insolvency. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/vector-borne-illnesses/ |
| Permafrost |
| Feedback loops are increasingly seen as important in climate projections. Melting permafrost is expected to accelerate warming of the planet and release pathogens unknown to us today. By Max Rudolph. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/permafrost/ |
| Water, water, everywhere |
| Stress tests come in various levels of adversity; normal volatility, realistic disasters and worst case scenarios. Aligning the situation to the appropriate stress test is very important when managing an insurer. Regulators are less interested in how you manage day-to-day, more in scenarios that might result in insolvency. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/water-water-everywhere/ |
| Climate Migration |
| No one is arguing that the earth is not getting hotter, but what limits exist for humans to survive? What are the ramifications for those who live in poverty and need to move? The default alternatives are unacceptable. The world needs a plan. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/climate-migrations/ |
| After COVID |
| Learning from those who have studied near-death situations can help companies as they strategize how to move past the pandemic. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/after-covid/ |
| Super volcano |
| A volcano erupts somewhere, on average, every week. Eruptions large enough to impact the global environment happen much less frequently, but they have happened. The “Year without a Summer” in 1815 affected crops and immigration, and similar events will happen again. These Super Volcanoes tend to have numerous knock-on effects. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/super-volcano/ |
| Cascadia Earthquake |
| When a catastrophic event hasn’t happened since 1700 there is not much historical data to aid those who live there or insure residents. Here are some of the basic concerns. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/cascadia-earthquake/ |
| Microplastics |
| Tiny pieces of plastic are found in the ocean, soils and the human body. This can’t be good. Scientists are still learning about the implications of microplastics, but it’s clear that better recycling and reduced use of plastic bottles, fishing nets, micro beads and nurdles are a start. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/microplastics/ |
| Solar Storms |
| A deep dive into the currently top ranked dangerous risk, we compare recent inflation spikes against past events. The second includes an interview with an actuary who has dealt with high levels of inflation in Venezuela for many years. Finally, the third looks from a contrarian’s viewpoint by inverting the question and considering what could cause future inflation to be low. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/microplastics/ |
| Spillover Diseases |
| As humans encroach on new ecosystems diseases found in animals and birds can jump to a new home inside us. We think about coronavirus and influenza but should monitor closely diseases like bird flu and Ebola. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/spillover-diseases/ |
| Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance |
| This piece is a challenge for you to consider something that is likely not yet on your risk register. Could the spread of bacteria with resistance to antibiotics have an impact on your business plans? We provide some questions that you might ask as well as some preliminary answers. |
| https://crossingthinice.podbean.com/e/bacterial-antimicrobial-resistance/ |
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-p3kme-17681e0
The future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance of adaptability in modern business. Explore how the new Adaptor role will help companies to anticipate challenges, leverage opportunities, and embed resilience into every decision.
https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-vhg3w-1759eaa
From China’s aging population and economic slowdown to India’s tech-fueled growth, from the decline of globalization to the rise of AI and climate disruptions, we explore how emerging risks intertwine to drive the future of our risks in 2025 and beyond. Whether you’re a board member, risk manager, or just live on this planet, join us as we navigate these seismic shifts and uncover the strategies needed to stay ahead.
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