Archive for April 2020

Is S@H Worth It?

April 26, 2020
Colin Van Dervort / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

It has been about a month since the US started Stay at Home (S@H) policies. Some people are wondering whether it has been worth it.

Here is a little thought exercise. At the end, you tell me if you think that it is worth it.

So if you think about it that way, it S@H worth it?

And if you can follow that story, then we can take it into May. Since we are looking at exponential curves, these numbers will keep diverging sharply. In another 20 days, if we can keep actual COVID-19 case growth at 3.5% or lower, we will go from about 40 to 80 cases per 100,000. And the 10% projection will double 3 times from about 90 to 650 per 100,000. That would be a 44 MILLION difference in infections and a 3 MILLION difference in deaths. By 15 May!


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