Archive for the ‘Risk Culture’ category

Top 10 RISKVIEWS Posts of 2014 – ORSA Heavily Featured

December 29, 2014

RISKVIEWS believes that this may be the best top 10 list of posts in the history of this blog.  Thanks to our readers whose clicks resulted in their selection.

  • Instructions for a 17 Step ORSA Process – Own Risk and Solvency Assessment is here for Canadian insurers, coming in 2015 for US and required in Europe for 2016. At least 10 other countries have also adopted ORSA and are moving towards full implementation. This post leads you to 17 other posts that give a detailed view of the various parts to a full ORSA process and report.
  • Full Limits Stress Test – Where Solvency and ERM Meet – This post suggests a link between your ERM program and your stress tests for ORSA that is highly logical, but not generally practiced.
  • What kind of Stress Test? – Risk managers need to do a better job communicating what they are doing. Much communications about risk models and stress tests is fairly mechanical and technical. This post suggests some plain English terminology to describe the stress tests to non-technical audiences such as boards and top management.
  • How to Build and Use a Risk Register – A first RISKVIEWS post from a new regular contributor, Harry Hall. Watch for more posts along these lines from Harry in the coming months. And catch Harry on his blog, http://www.pmsouth.com
  • ORSA ==> AC – ST > RCS – You will notice a recurring theme in 2014 – ORSA. That topic has taken up much of RISKVIEWS time in 2014 and will likely take up even more in 2015 and after as more and more companies undertake their first ORSA process and report. This post is a simple explanation of the question that ORSA is trying to answer that RISKVIEWS has used when explaining ORSA to a board of directors.
  • The History of Risk Management – Someone asked RISKVIEWS to do a speech on the history of ERM. This post and the associated new permanent page are the notes from writing that speech. Much more here than could fit into a 15 minute talk.
  • Hierarchy Principle of Risk Management – There are thousands of risks faced by an insurer that do not belong in their ERM program. That is because of the Hierarchy Principle. Many insurers who have followed someone’s urging that ALL risk need to be included in ERM belatedly find out that no one in top management wants to hear from them or to let them talk to the board. A good dose of the Hierarchy Principle will fix that, though it will take time. Bad first impressions are difficult to fix.
  • Risk Culture, Neoclassical Economics, and Enterprise Risk Management – A discussion of the different beliefs about how business and risk work. A difference in the beliefs that are taught in MBA and Finance programs from the beliefs about risk that underpin ERM make it difficult to reconcile spending time and money on risk management.
  • What CEO’s Think about Risk – A discussion of three different aspects of decision-making as practiced by top management of companies and the decision making processes that are taught to quants can make quants less effective when trying to explain their work and conclusions.
  • Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty – Explores the concepts of Deep Uncertainty and Wicked Problems. Of interest if you have any risks that you find yourself unable to clearly understand or if you have any problems where all of the apparent solutions are strongly opposed by one group of stakeholders or another.
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Risk Culture, Neoclassical Economics, and Enterprise Risk Management

September 22, 2014

Pyramid_of_Capitalist_System copyFinancial regulators, rating agencies and many commentators have blamed weak Risk Culture for many of the large losses and financial company failures of the past decade. But their exposition regarding a strong Risk Culture only goes as far as describing a few of the risk management practices of an organization and falls far short of describing the beliefs and motivations that are at the heart of any culture. This discussion will present thinking about how the fundamental beliefs of Neo Classical Economics clash with the recommended risk practices and how the beliefs that underpin Enterprise Risk Management are fundamentally consistent with the recommended risk management practices but differ significantly from Neo Classical Economics beliefs.

Hierarchy Principle of Risk Management

September 8, 2014

The purpose of ERM is NOT to try to elevate all risk decisions to the highest possible level, but to master discerning the best level for making each risk decision and for getting the right information to the right person in time to make a good risk decision.

This is the Hierarchy Principle as it applies to ERM.  It is one of the two or three most important principles of ERM.  Why then, might you ask, haven’t we ever heard about it before, even from RISKVIEWS.

But most insurers follow the hierarchy principle for managing their Underwriting process for risk acceptance of their most important risks.  

You could argue that many of the most spectacular losses made by banks have been in situations where they did not follow the hierarchy principle.  

  • Nick Leeson at Barings Bank was taking risks at a size that should have been decided (and rejected) by the board.
  • Jerome Kerviel at Soc Gen was doing the same.
  • The London Whale at JP Morgan is also said to have done that.  

On the other hand, Jon Corzine was taking outsized risks that eventually sank MF Global with the full knowledge and approval of the board.  Many people suggest that the CRO should have stopped that.  But RISKVIEWS believes that the Hierarchy Principle was satisfied.  

ERM is not and cannot be held responsible for bad decisions that are made at the very top of the firm, unless the risk function was providing flawed information that supported those decisions.  If, as happened at MF Global, the board and top management were making risk decisions with their eyes fully open and informed by the risk function, then ERM worked as it should.  

ERM does not prevent mistakes or bad judgment.

What ERM does that is new is that

  1. it works to systematically determine the significance of all risk decisions, 
  2. it ranks the significance and uses that information, along with other information such as risk velocity and uncertainty, to determine a recommendation of the best level to make decisions about each risk,
  3. it assesses the ability of the firm to absorb losses and the potential for losses within the risks that are being held by the firm at any point in time,
  4. it works with management and the board to craft a risk appetite statement that links the loss absorbing capacity of the firm with the preferences of management and the board for absorbing losses.

ERM does not manage the firm.  ERM helps management to manage the risks of the firm mainly by providing information about the risks.  

So why have we not heard about this Hierarchy Principle before?  

For many years, ERM have been fighting to get any traction, to have a voice.  The Hierarchy Principle complicates the message, so was left out by many early CROs and other pioneers.  A few were pushing for the risk function to be itself elevated as high as possible and they did not want to limit the risk message, deeming everything about risk to be of highest importance. But RISKVIEWS believes that it was mostly because the Hierarchy Principle is pretty fundamental to business management and is usually not explicitly stated anywhere else, even though it is applied almost always.

ERM now receives a major push from regulators, to a large extent from the ORSA.  In writing, the regulators do not require that ERM elevate all risk decisions.  But in practice, they are seeing some insurers who have been elevating everything and the regulators are adopting those examples as their standard for best in class.  

Just one more way that the regulatory support for ERM will speed its demise.  If regulators advocate for consistent violation of the Hierarchy principle, then ERM will be seen mainly as a wasteful burden.  

 

Risk Culture and Enterprise Risk Management (1/2 Day Seminar)

September 2, 2014

Afternoon of September 29 – at the ERM Symposium #ERMSYM

Bad risk culture has been blamed as the ultimate source of problems that have caused gigantic losses and corporate failures in the past 10 years. But is that a helpful diagnosis of the cause of problems or just a circular discussion? What is risk culture anyway? Is it a set of practices that a company can just adopt or does culture run deeper than that? How does risk culture vary between countries and continents? How do risk cultures go bad and can they be fixed? This is, of course, a discussion of the human side of Enterprise Risk Management. 

This half-day seminar (1 – 4:30 p.m.) will draw together materials from business organizational theorists, anthropologists, regulators, rating agencies, investors, corporations, insurers and auditors to help define risk culture and diagnose problem causes. The objective is to provide the attendees with multiple perspectives on risk culture to help them to survive and thrive within the potentially multiple risk cultures that they find themselves operating alongside – or against. In addition, the speakers will draw upon their own experiences and observations to provide a number of practical examples of how risk cultures can and do go wrong. This discussion may help you to identify the signs of devolving risk culture if they start to appear in your organization. Finally, the difficult topic of fixing a bad risk culture will be discussed. That part of the discussion will help attendees to attain a realistic perspective on that extremely difficult process. 

The seminar will be presented by three speakers from very diverse backgrounds. Andrew Bent, Risk Coordinator for Suncor Energy Inc. has also worked in multiple levels of government in New Zealand and Canada. Bent has co-authored several articles and papers on strategic risk assessment and the use of root cause analysis in risk management. Carol Clark is Senior Policy Advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago where she has most recently been focused on operational risk issues associated with high speed trading. Her research has been published in the Journal of Payment Systems Law, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Chicago Fed Letter and Economic Perspectives as well as Euromoney Books. Dave Ingram is Executive Vice President at Willis Re where he advises insurers on ERM practices. Ingram has worked extensively with both Life and Property and Casualty insurers on various aspects of risk management over the past 30 years. He has recently co-authored a series of articles and papers on risk culture and has had a number of experiences with the risk cultures of over 200 insurers.

Speakers: 
Andrew Bent, ARM-E, ARM-P, CCSA, CRMA, Risk Coordinator, Suncor Energy
Carol Clark, Senior Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 
David Ingram, CERA, PRM, EVP, Willis Re

Registration

Too Much Risk

August 18, 2014

Risk Management is all about avoiding taking Too Much Risk.

And when it really comes down to it, there are only a few ways to get into the situation of taking too much risk.

  1. Misunderstanding the risk involved in the choices made and to be made by the organization
  2. Misunderstanding the risk appetite of the organization
  3. Misunderstanding the risk taking capacity of the organization
  4. Deliberately ignoring the risk, the risk appetite and/or the risk taking capacity

So Risk Management needs to concentrate on preventing these four situations.  Here are some thoughts regarding how Risk Management can provide that.

1. Misunderstanding the risk involved in the choices made and to be made by an organization

This is the most common driver of Too Much Risk.  There are two major forms of misunderstanding:  Misunderstanding the riskiness of individual choices and Misunderstanding the way that risk from each choice aggregates.  Both of these drivers were strongly in evidence in the run up to the financial crisis.  The risk of each individual mortgage backed security was not seriously investigated by most participants in the market.  And the aggregation of the risk from the mortgages was misunderestimated as well.  In both cases, there was some rationalization for the misunderstanding.  The Misunderstanding was apparent to most only in hindsight.  And that is most common for misunderstanding risks.  Those who are later found to have made the wrong decisions about risk were most often acting on their beliefs about the risks at the time.  This problem is particularly common for firms with no history of consistently and rigorously measuring risks.  Those firms usually have very experienced managers who have been selecting their risks for a long time, who may work from rules of thumb.  Those firms suffer this problem most when new risks are encountered, when the environment changes making their experience less valid and when there is turnover of their experienced managers.  Firms that use a consistent and rigorous risk measurement process also suffer from model induced risk blindness.  The best approach is to combine analysis with experienced judgment.

2.  Misunderstanding the risk appetite of the organization

This is common for organizations where the risk appetite has never been spelled out.  All firms have risk appetites, it is just that in many, many cases, no one knows what they are in advance of a significant loss event.  So misunderstanding the unstated risk appetite is fairly common.  But actually, the most common problem with unstated risk appetites is under utilization of risk capacity.  Because the risk appetite is unknown, some ambitious managers will push to take as much risk as possible, but the majority will be over cautious and take less risk to make sure that things are “safe”.

3.  Misunderstanding the risk taking capacity of the organization

 This misunderstanding affects both companies who do state their risk appetites and companies who do not.  For those who do state their risk appetite, this problem comes about when the company assumes that they have contingent capital available but do not fully understand the contingencies.  The most important contingency is the usual one regarding money – no one wants to give money to someone who really, really needs it.  The preference is to give money to someone who has lots of money who is sure to repay.  For those who do not state a risk appetite, each person who has authority to take on risks does their own estimate of the risk appetite based upon their own estimate of the risk taking capacity.  It is likely that some will view the capacity as huge, especially in comparison to their decision.  So most often the problem is not misunderstanding the total risk taking capacity, but instead, mistaking the available risk capacity.

4.  Deliberately ignoring the risk, the risk appetite and/or the risk taking capacity of the organization

A well established risk management system will have solved the above problems.  However, that does not mean that their problems are over.  In most companies, there are rewards for success in terms of current compensation and promotions.  But it is usually difficult to distinguish luck from talent and good execution in a business about risk taking.  So there is a great temptation for managers to deliberately ignore the risk evaluation, the risk appetite and the risk taking capacity of the firm.  If the excess risk that they then take produces excess losses, then the firm may take a large loss.  But if the excess risk taking does not result in an excess loss, then there may be outsized gains reported and the manager may be seen as highly successful person who saw an opportunity that others did not.  This dynamic will create a constant friction between the Risk staff and those business managers who have found the opportunity that they believe will propel their career forward.

So get to work, risk managers.

Make sure that your organization

  1. Understands the risks
  2. Articulates and understands the risk appetite
  3. Understands the aggregate and remaining risk capacity at all times
  4. Keeps careful track of risks and risk taking to be sure to stop any managers who might want to ignore the risk, the risk appetite and the risk taking capacity

Key Ideas of ERM

July 24, 2014

For a set of activities to be called ERM, they must satisfy ALL of these Key Ideas…

  1. Transition from Evolved Risk Management to planned ERM
  2. Comprehensive – includes ALL risks
  3. Measurement – on a consistent basis allows ranking and…
  4. Aggregation – adding up the risks to know total
  5. Capital – comparing sum of risks to capital – can apply security standard to judge
  6. Hierarchy – decisions about risks are made at the appropriate level in the organization – which means information must be readily available

Risk management activities that do not satisfy ALL Key Ideas may well be good and useful things that must be done, but they are not, by themselves ERM.

Many activities that seek to be called ERM do not really satisfy ALL Key Ideas.  The most common “fail” is item 2, Comprehensive.  When risks are left out of consideration, that is the same as a measurement of zero.  So no matter how difficult to measure, it is extremely important to really, really be Comprehensive.

But it is quite possible to “fail” on any of the other Key Ideas.

The Transition idea usually “fails” when the longest standing traditional risk management practices are not challenged to come up to ERM standards that are being applied to other risks and risk management activities.

Measurement “fails” when the tails of the risk model are not of the correct “fatness“.  Risks are significantly undervalued.

Aggregation “fails” when too much independence of risks is assumed.  Most often ignored is interdependence caused by common counter parties.

Capital “fails” when the security standard is based upon a very partial risk model and not on a completely comprehensive risk model.

Hierarchy “fails” when top management and/or the board do not personally take responsibility for ERM.  The CRO should not be an independent advocate for risk management, the CRO should be the agent of the power structure of the firm.

In fact Hierarchy Failure is the other most common reason for ERM to fail.

Risk Culture gets the Blame

March 18, 2014

Poor Risk Culture has been often blamed for some of the headline corporate failures of the past several years.  Regulators and rating agencies have spoken out about what they would suggest as important elements of a strong risk culture and the following 10 elements all show up on more than one of those lists:

1.      Risk Governance – involvement of the board in risk management

2.      Risk Appetite – clear statement of the risk that the organization would be willing to accept

3.      Compensation – incentive compensation does not conflict with goals of risk management

4.      Tone at the Top – board and top management are publically vocal in support of risk management

5.      Accountability – Individuals are held accountable for violations of risk limits

6.      Challenge – it is acceptable to publically disagree with risk assessments

7.      Risk Organization – individuals are assigned specific roles to facilitate the risk management program, including a lead risk officer

8.      Broad communication /participation in RM – risk management is everyone’s job and everyone knows what is happening

9.      RM Linked to strategy – risk management program is consistent with company strategy and planning considers risk information

10.    Separate Measurement and Management of risk – no one assesses their own performance regarding risk and risk management

Those are all good things for a firm to do to make it more likely for their risk management to succeed, but this list hardly makes up a Risk Culture.

Crowd

The latest WillisWire post in the ERM Practices series talks about Risk Culture from the perspective of the fundamental beliefs of the people in the organization about risk.

And RISKVIEWS has made over 50 posts about various aspects of risk culture.

Risk Culture Posts in RISKVIEWS


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