Posted tagged ‘Pandemic’

First Quarter GDP

April 30, 2022

Do you notice anything unusual in the graph above that occurred in the first quarter of 2022? This graph says that in January about 6% of Americans were sick. That is about 25% of all of the COVID infections over the past 26 months. Other than January 2022, COVID infections averaged 2.4 million per month.

First quarter GDP fell by 1.4% in 2022.

I would bet that some of the GDP drop was due to the absolutely extraordinary level of illness in the first quarter.

I hadn’t noticed any commentary that agrees with this point. But I am guessing that since we are all feeling that we have turned the corner on COVID, we are deliberately putting it out of our minds. Which may cause us to draw erroneous conclusions about what is happening with the economy and take actions to fix something that may have been driven to some extant by the pandemic, not some other type of weakness in the economy.

Is S@H Worth It?

April 26, 2020
Colin Van Dervort / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

It has been about a month since the US started Stay at Home (S@H) policies. Some people are wondering whether it has been worth it.

Here is a little thought exercise. At the end, you tell me if you think that it is worth it.

So if you think about it that way, it S@H worth it?

And if you can follow that story, then we can take it into May. Since we are looking at exponential curves, these numbers will keep diverging sharply. In another 20 days, if we can keep actual COVID-19 case growth at 3.5% or lower, we will go from about 40 to 80 cases per 100,000. And the 10% projection will double 3 times from about 90 to 650 per 100,000. That would be a 44 MILLION difference in infections and a 3 MILLION difference in deaths. By 15 May!


%d bloggers like this: