Posted tagged ‘COVID-19’

Monitoring COVID Mitigation Compliance

July 28, 2020

activecovid

Many discussions of COVID-19 mitigation revolve around the requirements and recommendations that are made by the government.

The CDC suggests answering this question:

  • To what extent do individuals and organizations practice community mitigation strategies?

We will seek to answer that question via a questionnaire.  Right now, we have piloted that questionnaire twice with about 30 people providing observations.

grid22

We have observations from people in the above states, which provide diverse situations regarding their COVID situation. (Here Level refers to the number of new cases per 100k from the past 14 days and Rate refers to the New Infection Rate which is the new infections from the current day as a percentage of the infections for the prior 14 days.)

Pilot Project Findings – not credible amount of data

bystate

The above reflects the average compliance over 36 mitigation strategies.  This is a Pilot, so we are not concerning ourselves about numbers of observations but we recognize that these are not sufficient to draw any conclusions about the actual level of compliance.  Of those 36 strategies, the top 10 are:

Pilot Project Findings – not credible amount of data

Top10s

We welcome additional observers.  We will be continuing the Pilot Project and working on getting funding to turn this into a full scale research project.

To contribute your observations follow this LINK.  We welcome both additional observers for the states above as well as observers from states where we have not yet received any observations.

Is S@H Worth It?

April 26, 2020
Colin Van Dervort / CC BY (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)

It has been about a month since the US started Stay at Home (S@H) policies. Some people are wondering whether it has been worth it.

Here is a little thought exercise. At the end, you tell me if you think that it is worth it.

So if you think about it that way, it S@H worth it?

And if you can follow that story, then we can take it into May. Since we are looking at exponential curves, these numbers will keep diverging sharply. In another 20 days, if we can keep actual COVID-19 case growth at 3.5% or lower, we will go from about 40 to 80 cases per 100,000. And the 10% projection will double 3 times from about 90 to 650 per 100,000. That would be a 44 MILLION difference in infections and a 3 MILLION difference in deaths. By 15 May!


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