Employee Turnover Risk – Update

Riskviews reported that Employee Turnover risk was Imminent in 2011.  But it hasn’t happened yet.

QuitsYou can see from this recent US BLS chart that employee quits are very slowly edging up, but they haven’t exactly popped.

But the points made in 2011 are still valid.

  • A large percentage of employees are somewhat dissatisfied with their jobs and would move given the right opportunity.
  • It is very expensive to replace experienced and highly productive employees.

Another factor, retirements of Baby Boomers, will gradually grow over the next twenty years, but will not create any sudden shift in these numbers.  The monthly retirements will gradually double, since the baby boomer cohort births were roughly double the annual number of births pre-1946 gradually adding roughly 150,000 to the monthly quit figures.  People do not generally all retire as soon as they reach eligibility age, and that practice has slowed slightly since a temporary spike in retirements after the Financial Crisis.

Extrapolation of the chart above suggests that it might take another three years for quits to reach the pre-crisis peak.

Lesson to learn from the 2011 statement – the statement that something is a risk is NOT a prediction that a loss event is going to happen.  Employee turnover is still a risk, but the velocity of emergence has proved to be less than expected.

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