Decision Fatigue and Crisis Risk Management
In a recent New York TImes Magazine article, the problem of decision making fatigue is described. The article says that people will generally tire of making decisions. It sites studies of judges rulings on parole hearings. Parolees who have the bad luck to have their case heard later in the day have much less chance of success was one example cited.
Another interesting aspect of decision fatigue was that once fatigued of decisions, people tended to narrow their decision making criteria. Tired decision makers would eventually get down to a single factor driving their decisions.
The idea given of how to avoid decision fatigue is generally to avoid making too many decisions.
There are interesting implications for risk management. RISKVIEWS has said many times that risk management means that sometimes the company will do something different then before they had risk management. But since the company is not doing something different all of the time, each different situation requires a decision. But all decisions are not of the same economic impact.
So a strategy for getting it right – or at least avoiding decision fatigue for the most important decisions is to make sure that a fresh decision maker is involved in the decisions of higher importance.
This idea may not mean making any change in the procedures of many companies. It is not uncommon for decisions that involve larger amounts of money to require approval by a more senior person than the person who makes the lesser decisions. It appears that is a good idea from a decision fatigue point of view. Firms who seek to empower their employees by avoiding that sort of system may be playing russian roulette with their most important risk management decisions.
In a crisis, many decisions are needed in a short time. That is perhaps one way of defining a crisis. Things must be done differently. The likelihood of decision fatigue in a crisis seems to be immense.
A solution to this is to reduce the number of decisions. This can be accomplished by anticipating the decisions that may be needed and making the most likely decisions in advance. It may well be that an advance decision made with an approximation of the situation may be better than a fatigued decision. There still remains the decision of whether the advance decision is still applicable. But if done right, the stress of decisions can be greatly reduced.
In addition, the narrowing of decision making criteria for fatigued decision makers is an interesting finding. Many management information people report that they need to refine the information that they provide to single indicators, in some cases to red light/green light on/off indicators.
This seems to be clear indication of decision fatigue of senior managers. While MI professionals will not usually be empowered to have an opinion on this, it seems that what is in order is for the top managers to make fewer decisions until they get to the point where they are no longer too fatigued to recognize the actual complexity of the decisions that they are making.