Turkey Risk

On Thanksgiving Day her in the US, let us recall Nassim Taleb’s story about the turkey.  For 364 days the turkey saw no risk whatsoever, just good eats.  Then one day, the turkey became dinner.

For some risks, studying the historical record and making a model from experience just will not give useful results.

And, remembering the experience of the turkey, a purely historical basis for parameterizing risk models could get you cooked.

Happy Thanksgiving.

Advertisements
Explore posts in the same categories: Assumptions, Black Swan, Modeling, risk assessment

Tags:

You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.

One Comment on “Turkey Risk”

  1. Max Rudolph Says:

    Ah, the classics. So basic yet so illuminating!


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: