On Thanksgiving Day her in the US, let us recall Nassim Taleb’s story about the turkey. For 364 days the turkey saw no risk whatsoever, just good eats. Then one day, the turkey became dinner.
For some risks, studying the historical record and making a model from experience just will not give useful results.
And, remembering the experience of the turkey, a purely historical basis for parameterizing risk models could get you cooked.
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