Murphy was a Risk Manager!
Perhaps you have heard the saying…
If anything can go wrong, it will.
Widely known as Murphy’s Law. Well, you may not know it but Murphy was actually a risk manager.
The originator of Murphy’s Law was an engineer named Captain Ed Murphy. He was responsible for safety testing for the Air Force and later for several private engineering firms.
He was a reliability engineer. And in his mind, the statement that became known as Murphy’s Law was just his way of describing how you had to think to design stress tests.
He had just experienced the failure of a device that he had designed because of incorrect wiring. At the time, he may have blamed the problem on the people who installed his device, but later, he came to realize that he should have anticipated the possibility of confusion over which lead to connect to what and made provision for the wiring error in his design.
His original design required that the installer would have perfect knowledge of his intentions with the design. Instead he should have assumed that the installer would have been completely ignorant of what was in his head.
Does that sound like a word of caution for the designers of risk models?
Will future operators of your risk model need to fully understand what you had intended? Or do you anticipate that they will doubtless not.
I had that experience. Fifteen years after I had completed a risk model for a company and in the process taken some shortcuts that made perfect sense to me, I was told that the firm was still using my model, but they suddenly noticed that it was giving very troubling signals, signals that turned out to be almost completely incorrect.
Those shortcuts had moved further and further away from the truth. I had some realization that the model needed regular recalibration, but I had failed to make that completely clear to the people who inherited the model from me and they certainly had not thought it important to pass along my verbal instructions to the people who inherited it from them.
So remember Murphy’s Law and this little story about how Murphy came to originally say what became known as his law. It could happen to you.
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