Nick sent out a link to a test that you can take that measures Risk Intelligence
Try it… I believe that it does give some insight to a different aspect of intelligence that is needed for good risk management.
I would not say that it suggests anything new. In fact, it seems to link Risk Intelligence back to the ancient inscription at the Oracle of Delphi,
To be able to understand RISK, that is a good first step, to be able to distinguish between things that you know and things that you do not know are true. I would suggest that is pretty basic for success in any endeavor, including risk management.
However, I would suggest a slightly different standard as the most important kind of intelligence needed for risk management. That would be the ability to
Distinguish between Future Events that are Certainties and Future Events that are Uncertain.
Distinguish between RISK and UNCERTAINTY in a Knightian sense for the Uncertain events.
Remember after the fact that at some past time, when a decision had to be made, the future events that we now all know to be certain because they have happened, were uncertain.
But those conditions seem like boundary conditions – there is no Risk Intelligence if those conditions are not met.
Real Risk Intelligence would then be the ability to make reliable estimates of the likelihood of Uncertain Events.
Real Risk Intelligence would need to be scored as the Projection Point test is scored, that is against a scale that incorporates the idea that answers are not right or wrong, but that acknowledges that probabilistic answers should be scored on a curve (actually they use a diagonal) that reflects the likelihood as well as the outcome.
I would suggest that taking the Projection Point Risk Intelligence Test is worth the 10 minutes that it takes. But it is the beginning rather than the end of investigation into the idea of Risk Intelligence.
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