Whose Loss is it?

As we look at the financial system and contemplate what makes sense going forward, it should be important to think through what we plan to do with losses going forward.

losses

There are at least seven possibilities.  As a matter of public policy, we should be discussing where the attachment should be for each layer of losses.  Basel 2 tries to set the attachment for the fourth layer from the bottom, without directly addressing the three layers below.

So for major loss scenarios, we should have a broad idea of how we expect the losses to be distributed.  Recent practices have focused on just a few of these layers, especially the counterparty layer.  The “skin in the game” idea suggests that the counterparties, when they are intermediaries, should have some portion of the losses. Other counterparties are the folks who are taking the risks via securitizations and hedging transactions.

However, we do not seem to be discussing a public policy about the degree to which the first layer, the borrowers, needs to absorb some of the losses.  In all cases, absorbing some of the losses means that that layer really needs to have the capacity to absorb those losses.  Assigning losses to a layer with no resources is not an useful game.  Having resources means having valuable collateral or dependable income that can be used to absorb the loss.  It could also mean having access to credit to pay the loss, though hopefully we have learned that access to credit today is not the same as access to credit when the loss comes due.

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This picture might be a useful one for risk managers to use as well to clarify things about how losses will be borne that are being taken on by their firm.  The bottom layer does not have to be a borrower, it can also be an insured.

This might be a good way to talk about losses with a board.  Let them know for different frequency/severity pairs who pays what.  This discussion could be a good part of a discussion on Risk Appetite and Risk Limits as well as a discussion of the significance of each different layer to the risk management program of the firm.

The “skin in the game” applies at the corporate level as well.  If you are the reinsurer or another counterparty, you might want to look at this diagram for each of your customers to make sure that they each have enough “skin” where it counts.

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Explore posts in the same categories: Counterparty Risk, Credit Risk, Profits, Risk, Risk Limits, Stress Test

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