The Glass Box Risk Model
I learned a new term today “The Glass Box Risk Model” from a post by Donald R. van Deventer,
You can read what he has to say about it. I just wanted to pass along the term “Glass Box.”
A Glass Box Risk Model is one that is exactly the opposit of a Black Box. With a Black Box Model, you have no idea what is going on inside. WIth a Glass Box, you can see everything inside.
Something is needed, however, in addition to transparency, and that is clarity. To use the physical metaphor further, the glass box could easily be crammed with so, so much complicated stuff that it is only transparent in name. The complexity acts as a shroud that keeps real transparency from happening.
I would suggest that argues for separability of parts of the risk model. The more different things that one tries to cram into a single model, the less likely that it is separable or truely transparent.
That probably argues against any of the elegance that modelers sometimes prize. More code is probably preferable to less if that makes things easier to understand.
For example, I give away my age, but I stopped being a programmer about the time when actuaries took up APL. But I heard from everyone who ever tried to assign maintenance of an APL program to someone other than the developer, that APL was a totally elegant but totally opaque programming language.
But I would suggest that the Glass Box should be the ideal for which we strive with our models.
Tags: risk assessmentYou can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.