## Unrisk – Part 3

From Jawwad Farid

Transition Matrix

Here is another way of looking at it. It is called a transition matrix. All it does is track how something rated/scored in a given class moves across classes over time

How do you link to profitability?

This is how profitability is calculated generally. Take the amount you have lent, multiply it by your expected adjusted return and voila, you have expected earnings. But that is not the true picture.

What you are missing is the impact of two more elements. Your cost of funds (the money you have lent is actually not yours. You have borrowed it at a cost and that cost needs to be repaid) and your best and worst case provisions. So true profitability would look something like this.

That is a pretty picture if I ever saw one. Especially when you compare the swing from the original projected number. Back to the question clients ask. Where do projected provisions come from? From transition matrices. And where do transition matrices come from. From applying your understanding of your distribution to your portfolio.

Remember these are not my ideas. They are hardly even original. The Goldman trader who first asked me about moment generating functions wanted to understand how well I understood the distributions that were going to rule my life on Fleet street?

Full credit for posing the distribution problem goes to our friend NNT (Nicholas Nassim Taleb) who first posed this as getting comfortable with the generating function problem. He wrote all of three books on the subject and then some. Rumor has it that he also made an obscene amount of money in the process (not with book writing, but with understanding the distribution). All he suggested was that before you took a punt, try and understand how much trouble could you possibly land in based on how what you are punting on is likely to behave in the future. Don’t just look at the past and the present, look the range, likely, unlikely, expected, unexpected.

**Explore posts in the same categories:**Correlation, Credit Risk, Leverage, Modeling, Profits, Risk, risk assessment

**Tags:** Risk Management

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