UNRISK (Part 1)

Post from Jawwad Farid

I have now been doing this “risk” business for more than a decade. Eleven years ago, right about this time, I was rudely introduced to my first risk application. Fresh from my actuarial exams, I was stumped on an interview question dealing with moments of a distribution. I have read the material, struggled with it, taken an exam on it and passed it. But in the room overlooking Fleet Street in London, in the month Russia defaulted on its domestic debt, I couldn’t explain it.

A question dealing with the moment generating function has an exact and mathematical answer. These days, across three continents, clients ask more difficult questions. “Does risk really works? Or is it smoke and mirrors” and/or “what is the one thing I can do to better manage my exposures?” While risk managers are generally stereotyped as the quite sort with short snappy answers (or little to say as some uncharitable critics suggest), it has been difficult to come up with a catchy symbolic one word answer to the above two questions.

Sometime last year while reviewing a list of competitors I came across an interesting name “Unrisk”. Same concept as insured, uninsured. Risk, unrisk. Just the word I had been looking for. Catchy, symbolic and with far more cool/mystique factor than just plain simple risk management. A bright new term for an age old profession. When I saw it for the first time, I instantly knew that Unrisk would represent a state of institutional nirvana that we would achieve when we have done all that we could possibly do to manage risk on our platforms.

Next time a client would ask for a guide to a risk based paradise; you would simply give him the road map to the Unrisk state. The real question would be what you would put on that road map? And would it really protect you from all that an evil generating function could throw at you.

Second question first. No the unrisk state won’t really guarantee immunity from the evil eye. Neither will we stop booking risk. We will keep on carrying exposures on our balance sheet and will load as much risk as we can carry, sometimes even more.

And yes it won’t stop us from falling, stumbling or faltering.

Just that the frequency and severity of our nightmares would reduce a bit; we would still degrade but we would do it far more gracefully.

My personal recipe for the state is a short one. It only has one item on it.

  1. Understanding the distribution

To be continued

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Explore posts in the same categories: Enterprise Risk Management, ERM, Risk, Risk Treatment, Uncertainty, Unknown Risks

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